The Curse of Skipping to the Semifinals in Counter-Strike Tournaments
After their victories in the group stages at IEM XI Oakland, Astralis and FaZe earned a two-day break before their semifinal matches. However, what many may not know is that no team in Counter-Strike history who has followed this path has ever gone on to win the title.
1.6 Nightmares
In Counter-Strike 1.6, the format of skipping directly to the semifinals was used in three major international tournaments. In each instance, the team that won their group and advanced directly to the semifinals failed to secure the championship. The curse of the group champion is very real in this format.
In the Intel Extreme Masters (IEM) IV Global Finals of March 2010, Evil Geniuses and SK Gaming, the winners of their respective groups, were defeated in the semifinals by Natus Vincere (Na`Vi) and FX, respectively. Na`Vi went on to claim the title.
In the IEM V World Championship of March 2011, mTw and SK Gaming emerged as the winners of their groups. However, both teams were eliminated in the semifinals by Na`Vi and Frag Executors (FX), respectively. Na`Vi ultimately won the championship.
In the IEM VI World Championship of March 2012, SK Gaming secured the top spot in their group for the third consecutive year. But once again, they were defeated in the semifinals, this time by ESC.pl. Na`Vi, the winners of the other group, lost to ESC.pl in the final.
CS:GO as Well
In recent years, this format has been adopted in CS:GO tournaments. However, the trend of the team skipping to the semifinals not winning the championship continues.
At the EPICENTER tournament in October 2016, Na`Vi topped their group but were defeated by Dignitas in the semifinals. Dignitas went on to lift the trophy.
In the ESL Pro League Season 4 Finals of late October 2016, mousesports won their group but suffered an embarrassing loss to Cloud9 in the semifinals. SK Gaming, the winners of the other group, were defeated by Cloud9 in the final.
Ignoring one tournament that did not feature any days off, no team that has skipped directly to the semifinals has ever won a big international Counter-Strike tournament.
Reasons for Failure
There are several possible reasons why teams who skip to the semifinals struggle to win the tournament. Firstly, these teams rarely have an opportunity to practice during their time off, while their opponents have already played a competitive match. Two days off can disrupt a team’s form and routine. While the extra time can be used to prepare for opponents, it can also result in teams being unprepared for an important match.
In addition, Best-of-1 group stages may not effectively determine the best team overall. Close matches and unpredictable results are more likely in a single map, compared to a Best-of-3 series. The map selection also tends to be neutral, making it difficult for teams to fully exploit their strengths.
This pattern is not unique to CS:GO. In Dota 2, a similar double elimination format is used, but teams that progress through the upper bracket may become worn out, while those in the lower bracket have played more games. Dota 2 tournaments also use full series instead of Best-of-1 matches.
Impact on Media and Future
The format of skipping to the semifinals allows more time for media coverage and analysis. Interviews and write-ups have a longer lifespan, benefiting media outlets. This is one of the reasons why the format has become popular.
As the semifinals and finals of IEM XI Oakland approach, it will be interesting to see if Astralis or FaZe can break the curse. Despite the odds, they have shown strong performances in the tournament and have the potential to win. However, history suggests that they may face a difficult challenge to lift the trophy.
Photo credit: EPICENTER, Liquipedia